Simple Complexity

Predicting the Future is Hard

Data Warehousing analytics are retrospective, they look towards the past. From the past, it is possible to hypothesize patterns and trends. As hard as it is to do this well, using your knowledge to predict the future is quite difficult.

Today, I wanted to highlight some failed predictions:

• “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” — Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC), maker of big business mainframe computers, arguing against the PC in 1977.
• “I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.” — The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957.
• “But what… is it good for?” — IBM executive Robert Lloyd, speaking in 1968 about the microprocessor, the heart of today’s computers.
• “We will never make a 32 bit operating system.” — Bill Gates

Source: Wikipedia

So what is the implication of this? Things that you accept for fact now, can change. You are highly influenced by your view of the world. The best we can do is always seek out new information, be flexible with our assumptions, and know that anything you hold as an absolute truth could be wrong.

What do you believe that could be wrong? What would be the implication? What opportunity are we missing?

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